Frosinone 0-3 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Cremonese meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cremonese (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Frosinone, 1.30 for Cremonese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Frosinone, 1 for Cremonese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 59% versus Cremonese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 53% | Cremonese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.876 / defence 1.174 | Cremonese attack 1.176 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.040. Data: 20 Frosinone games / 58 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 21% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 49%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.04. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Frosinone 50% | Cremonese 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 21% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Frosinone 0.86 / Cremonese 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.876 / def 1.174 | Cremonese attack 1.176 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Cremonese kick off?
Frosinone vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Frosinone 0 - 3 Cremonese.
Where is Frosinone vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Cremonese part of?
Frosinone vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 21% chance of winning, Cremonese a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Frosinone and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Cremonese in?
Frosinone (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Frosinone's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.18x) against Frosinone's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
21%
4.86
31%
3.24
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.30
1.44
Cremonese xG
4.86
21%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
5%
20.42
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 14.4 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.44 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Frosinone have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 12W 19D 27L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 27W 16D 15L from 58 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Frosinone.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 1.24 PPG from 29 outings (9W 9D 11L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 14W 7D 8L from 29 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.38 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 12W 19D 27L in their last 58 games (0.95 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 27W 16D 15L in their last 58 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.24 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cremonese in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cremonese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Frosinone
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Frosinone 0-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 62%, Cremonese 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Frosinone) and 55% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 34%; Frosinone have failed to score in 31% of games; Cremonese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Frosinone's games and 48% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Frosinone's matches and 55% of Cremonese's.
Do Frosinone and Cremonese tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Frosinone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Frosinone 0-3 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.86 xG and Cremonese 1.44 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cremonese outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.88 / defence 1.17 against Cremonese attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 21% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 49%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 53%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.