Feralpisalo 1-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Feralpisalo take on Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Feralpisalo welcome Spezia to Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 7 games, Feralpisalo have gone 1W 1D 5L — a 0.57 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.43 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Feralpisalo at home: 0W 1D 2L from their last 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Spezia — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Spezia have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Feralpisalo 0.57 PPG, Spezia 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Feralpisalo in-play and half-time data (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
Spezia in-play and half-time data (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 29% versus Spezia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 43% | Spezia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.04 xG and Spezia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.698 / defence 1.183 | Spezia attack 0.793 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.133. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.698 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Spezia's defence rating of 1.404 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Feralpisalo's projected output up. Spezia's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 7 games and Spezia's last 6.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 37% | Spezia 32%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.24 | Draw 2.70 | Spezia 3.11. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feralpisalo's last 3 home games and Spezia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 33% (last 3 home games) | Spezia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 37% | Spezia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Feralpisalo 1.04 / Spezia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.698 / def 1.183 | Spezia attack 0.793 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Spezia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Spezia kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Feralpisalo 1 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Spezia part of?
Feralpisalo vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 31% chance of winning, Spezia a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Feralpisalo and Spezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Feralpisalo vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (0.70) and Spezia's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 7 games and Spezia's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
37%
2.70
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.10
1.06
Spezia xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.06 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feralpisalo come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 1D 5L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.29 PPG from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feralpisalo on 0.57 PPG, Spezia on 0.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Feralpisalo's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across their last 3 home games, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.33 points per game from their last 3 away games (0W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.71 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feralpisalo have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Spezia
Early Season
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Spezia
Early Season
❓ Feralpisalo vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Spezia in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Spezia have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Spezia away?
Feralpisalo's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.33 PPG; Spezia away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 28 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Spezia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 1, Spezia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2024: Spezia 0-2 Feralpisalo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Feralpisalo 33% BTTS, Spezia 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Feralpisalo and 67% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 67% of games; Spezia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 33% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feralpisalo and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 67% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 33% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Feralpisalo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Feralpisalo 1-2 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.04 xG and Spezia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.70 / defence 1.18 against Spezia attack 0.79 / defence 1.40, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 37% | Spezia 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 43%, Spezia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feralpisalo 0.57 PPG, Spezia 0.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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