Brescia 1-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Feralpisalo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feralpisalo make the trip to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to face Brescia in Serie B (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Friday 6 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
Brescia (all games): 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Brescia's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Feralpisalo have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 8 games: 1W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Feralpisalo away from home: 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Brescia's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Feralpisalo's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Feralpisalo half-time and goal-timing data (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 38% versus Feralpisalo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 12% | Feralpisalo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.34 xG and Feralpisalo 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.847 / defence 0.798 | Feralpisalo attack 0.702 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.175. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.442 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brescia's projected output up. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Brescia have a tight defence (rating 0.798), which is pulling Feralpisalo's projected output down. Data: built from Brescia's last 43 games and Feralpisalo's last 8.
Result probabilities: Brescia 50% | Draw 35% | Feralpisalo 15%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.01 | Draw 2.83 | Feralpisalo 6.73. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brescia 50% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 25% (last 4 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Friday 6 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 50% | Draw 35% | Feralpisalo 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Brescia 1.34 / Feralpisalo 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.847 / def 0.798 | Feralpisalo attack 0.702 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Brescia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Feralpisalo xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brescia vs Feralpisalo FAQs
What time does Brescia vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Brescia vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 6 October 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Brescia 1 - 1 Feralpisalo.
Where is Brescia vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Feralpisalo part of?
Brescia vs Feralpisalo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 50% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 15% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Brescia and Feralpisalo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Brescia vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brescia's attack rating (0.85) and Feralpisalo's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Feralpisalo's attack (0.70x) against Brescia's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from Brescia's last 43 games and Feralpisalo's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
50%
2.01
35%
2.83
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.00
0.66
Feralpisalo xG
2.01
50%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
4%
25.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brescia vs Feralpisalo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Brescia and 0.66 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 2W 5D 1L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Feralpisalo's form line: 1W 1D 6L from 8 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 4 home games (1W 3D 0L).
On the road, Feralpisalo have gone 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.50 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Early Season
Feralpisalo
Blended
Brescia (Home) vs Feralpisalo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brescia
Early Season
Feralpisalo
Blended
❓ Brescia vs Feralpisalo Form FAQs
What form are Brescia and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 2W 5D 1L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Feralpisalo away?
Brescia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.50 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Brescia or Feralpisalo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Feralpisalo in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
2
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Brescia vs Feralpisalo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Feralpisalo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Brescia have won 0, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Feralpisalo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2024: Feralpisalo 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia's games tend to start slowly — only 25% have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Feralpisalo 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Brescia) and 75% (Feralpisalo).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Feralpisalo in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brescia vs Feralpisalo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brescia and Feralpisalo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 25% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brescia and Feralpisalo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Brescia's recent games and 75% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Feralpisalo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 25% of Brescia's recent matches and 75% of Feralpisalo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Feralpisalo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Feralpisalo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.34 xG and Feralpisalo 0.66 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.85 / defence 0.80 against Feralpisalo attack 0.70 / defence 1.44, drawn from 43/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 50% | Draw 35% | Feralpisalo 15%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 12%, Feralpisalo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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