Brescia 1-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Feralpisalo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feralpisalo make the trip to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to face Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Brescia (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Brescia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Brescia's home record at Stadio Mario Rigamonti: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Feralpisalo have collected 0.50 PPG across 8 Serie B outings this season: 1W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feralpisalo away from home this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Brescia's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Feralpisalo's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Brescia half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Feralpisalo half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 38% versus Feralpisalo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 12% | Feralpisalo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.34 xG and Feralpisalo 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.847 / defence 0.798 | Feralpisalo attack 0.702 / defence 1.442. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.175. Feralpisalo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.442 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Brescia's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Brescia games / 8 Feralpisalo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 50% | Draw 35% | Feralpisalo 15%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.00 | Draw 2.86 | Feralpisalo 6.67. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 50% | Feralpisalo 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 50% | Draw 35% | Feralpisalo 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Brescia 1.34 / Feralpisalo 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.847 / def 0.798 | Feralpisalo attack 0.702 / def 1.442 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Brescia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Feralpisalo xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Brescia vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Brescia 1 - 1 Feralpisalo.
Where is Brescia vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Feralpisalo part of?
Brescia vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 50% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 15% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Brescia and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Feralpisalo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Feralpisalo in?
Brescia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Feralpisalo (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brescia's attack rating (0.85) and Feralpisalo's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Feralpisalo's attack (0.70x) against Brescia's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 43/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
50%
2.01
35%
2.83
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.00
0.66
Feralpisalo xG
2.01
50%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
4%
25.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Brescia and 0.66 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 2W 5D 1L record — W-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Brescia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feralpisalo's form line: 1W 1D 6L from 8 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L).
On the road, Feralpisalo have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.50 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Early Season
Feralpisalo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 2W 5D 1L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Feralpisalo away?
Brescia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.50 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Brescia or Feralpisalo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Feralpisalo in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
2
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Feralpisalo 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Feralpisalo 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Brescia) and 75% (Feralpisalo).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Feralpisalo in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Feralpisalo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 25% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Feralpisalo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Brescia's recent games and 75% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Feralpisalo tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Feralpisalo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Feralpisalo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Feralpisalo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.34 xG and Feralpisalo 0.66 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.85 / defence 0.80 against Feralpisalo attack 0.70 / defence 1.44, drawn from 43/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 50% | Draw 35% | Feralpisalo 15%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 12%, Feralpisalo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.