Feralpisalo 1-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Feralpisalo at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feralpisalo face Palermo.

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Analysis

Palermo make the trip to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to face Feralpisalo in Serie B (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form

Feralpisalo (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Feralpisalo have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Palermo have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Palermo away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Feralpisalo against 1.60 for Palermo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Palermo edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Feralpisalo 0–3 Palermo — a Palermo win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 52% versus Palermo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 56% | Palermo 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.60 xG and Palermo 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 1.153 / defence 1.148 | Palermo attack 1.086 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.192. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 23 games and Palermo's last 61.

Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 40% | Draw 25% | Palermo 35%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 2.50 | Draw 4.04 | Palermo 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Feralpisalo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feralpisalo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feralpisalo's last 10 home games and Palermo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 50% (last 10 home games) | Palermo 60% (last 10 away games).

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