Feralpisalo 1-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Modena at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feralpisalo host Modena at Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Feralpisalo — last 4 games: 0W 0D 4L, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Modena stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Modena away from home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Modena's 1.80 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Feralpisalo's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Feralpisalo in-play tendencies (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Modena in-play tendencies (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 0% of Feralpisalo's games and 50% of Modena's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 50% | Modena 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 0.99 xG and Modena 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.752 / defence 1.254 | Modena attack 1.113 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.041. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Modena's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 4 games and Modena's last 41.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 24% | Draw 30% | Modena 46%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 4.20 | Draw 3.31 | Modena 2.18. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 0% (last 4 games) | Modena 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 24% | Draw 30% | Modena 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Feralpisalo 0.99 / Modena 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.752 / def 1.254 | Modena attack 1.113 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Modena (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Modena xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Modena FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Modena kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Feralpisalo 1 - 1 Modena.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Modena part of?
Feralpisalo vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 24% chance of winning, Modena a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Feralpisalo and Modena will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Feralpisalo vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Feralpisalo's attack at 0.75x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 4 games and Modena's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
24%
4.20
30%
3.31
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.44
1.45
Modena xG
4.20
24%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
6%
17.95
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.45 for Modena, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Feralpisalo have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 4L record — L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Modena's form line: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Modena are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feralpisalo have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Modena in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Feralpisalo vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Modena in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Modena have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have Feralpisalo or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Modena in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Feralpisalo
1
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Modena?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 1, Modena have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Modena 2-3 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Modena?
Feralpisalo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Feralpisalo 0% BTTS, Modena 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Feralpisalo) and 50% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Modena in 50%; Feralpisalo have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Modena matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 50% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feralpisalo and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 50% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 75% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feralpisalo and Modena share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 5, as Feralpisalo and Modena drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 0.99 xG and Modena 1.45 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.75 / defence 1.25 against Modena attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 4/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 24% | Draw 30% | Modena 46%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 50%, Modena 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feralpisalo scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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