Feralpisalo 0-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cittadella at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cittadella make the trip to Stadio Leonardo Garilli to face Feralpisalo in Serie B (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Feralpisalo (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feralpisalo's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 4L across their last 6 home games (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Cittadella have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Cittadella away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Cittadella are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Feralpisalo — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cittadella — key trading statistics (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 50% versus Cittadella 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 57% | Cittadella 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 0.91 xG and Cittadella 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.850 / defence 1.511 | Cittadella attack 0.906 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.184. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.511 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cittadella's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 14 games and Cittadella's last 52.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 19% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 52%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 5.26 | Draw 3.43 | Cittadella 1.93. Cittadella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cittadella are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cittadella if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 50% (last 6 home games) | Cittadella 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 19% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Feralpisalo 0.91 / Cittadella 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.850 / def 1.511 | Cittadella attack 0.906 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Cittadella xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cittadella FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Cittadella kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Cittadella?
Feralpisalo 0 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Cittadella part of?
Feralpisalo vs Cittadella is a Serie B fixture (matchday 15) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 19% chance of winning, Cittadella a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Feralpisalo and Cittadella will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Feralpisalo vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Feralpisalo's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Cittadella's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Cittadella's attack (0.91x) against Feralpisalo's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 14 games and Cittadella's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
19%
5.26
29%
3.43
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.54
1.62
Cittadella xG
5.26
19%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
4%
26.65
21%
4.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.9 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cittadella Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.62 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Feralpisalo have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 4D 9L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Cittadella's form line: 6W 4D 4L from 14 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Cittadella are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feralpisalo have posted 0.33 PPG from their last 6 home games (0W 2D 4L).
On the road, Cittadella have gone 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.21 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cittadella in 64%.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Cittadella (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cittadella Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 1W 4D 9L in their last 14 games (0.50 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 6W 4D 4L in their last 14 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.33 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
1
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cittadella H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Cittadella?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 0, Cittadella have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Cittadella last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Cittadella 1-1 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 50%, Cittadella 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Feralpisalo) and 33% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cittadella Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Cittadella matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Feralpisalo's games and 67% of Cittadella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Feralpisalo and Cittadella matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 33% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Cittadella matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 83% of Cittadella's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cittadella edge out Feralpisalo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Feralpisalo 0-1 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 0.91 xG and Cittadella 1.62 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Feralpisalo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.85 / defence 1.51 against Cittadella attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 19% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 52%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 57%, Cittadella 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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