Sudtirol 0-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Como at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Como encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Como travel to Stadio Marco Druso to take on Sudtirol in Serie B (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sudtirol at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sudtirol are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Como have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Como have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Como — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sudtirol, 0 for Como and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended Sudtirol 1–1 Como — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Como in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 48% versus Como 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 29% | Como 40%). Note also that Como surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.12 xG and Como 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.122 / defence 1.057 | Como attack 0.994 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.172. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 52 games and Como's last 52.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 31% | Draw 32% | Como 36%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.21 | Draw 3.09 | Como 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 60% (last 10 home games) | Como 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Como | Competition: Serie B, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 31% | Draw 32% | Como 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sudtirol 1.12 / Como 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.122 / def 1.057 | Como attack 0.994 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Como (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Como xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Como FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Como kick off?
Sudtirol vs Como kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Como?
Sudtirol 0 - 1 Como.
Where is Sudtirol vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Como part of?
Sudtirol vs Como is a Serie B fixture (matchday 15) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 31% chance of winning, Como a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Como?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sudtirol and Como will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sudtirol vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (1.12) and Como's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 52 games and Como's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
31%
3.21
32%
3.09
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.36
1.23
Como xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Como Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.23 for Como, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol come into this having played 52 games, going 20W 21D 11L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.38 PPG from 52 outings (17W 21D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.56 PPG, Como on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sudtirol's home form reads 9W 13D 4L across their last 26 home games, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 26 away games (5W 12D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.23 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Como
Blended
Sudtirol (Home) vs Como (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Sudtirol vs Como Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Como in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 21D 11L in their last 52 games (1.56 PPG), while Como have gone 17W 21D 14L in their last 52 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Como away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.54 PPG; Como away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Como in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Como have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Como H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Como?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 1, Como have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Como last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2024: Como 2-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 58%, Como 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Sudtirol) and 42% (Como).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Como in 35%; Como in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Como Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Como matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 50% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sudtirol and Como matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Sudtirol's recent games and 42% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Como matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 73% of Como's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Como edge out Sudtirol 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Sudtirol 0-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.12 xG and Como 1.23 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Como attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 31% | Draw 32% | Como 36%, with Como to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 29%, Como 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.56 PPG, Como 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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