Feralpisalo 3-0 Catanzaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Catanzaro at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 21 as Feralpisalo welcome Catanzaro to Stadio Leonardo Garilli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Feralpisalo have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feralpisalo at Stadio Leonardo Garilli this season: 1W 3D 5L from 9 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Catanzaro — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Catanzaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Catanzaro away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Feralpisalo) versus 1.20 (Catanzaro). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Feralpisalo, 1 for Catanzaro and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Catanzaro winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Feralpisalo trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Catanzaro trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 50% versus Catanzaro 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 55% | Catanzaro 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.08 xG and Catanzaro 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.827 / defence 1.286 | Catanzaro attack 0.804 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.188. Data: 20 Feralpisalo games / 20 Catanzaro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 31% | Catanzaro 38%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Catanzaro 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Catanzaro are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Catanzaro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Feralpisalo 44% | Catanzaro 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 31% | Catanzaro 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Feralpisalo 1.08 / Catanzaro 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.827 / def 1.286 | Catanzaro attack 0.804 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Catanzaro (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Catanzaro xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Feralpisalo 3 - 0 Catanzaro.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro part of?
Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 31% chance of winning, Catanzaro a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Catanzaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Feralpisalo and Catanzaro will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Catanzaro?
Record (1 meetings): Feralpisalo 0W | Draws 0 | Catanzaro 1W.
What form are Feralpisalo and Catanzaro in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Catanzaro (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Feralpisalo's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Catanzaro's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Catanzaro's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Catanzaro Win
31%
3.22
31%
3.26
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.31
1.23
Catanzaro xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Catanzaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.23 for Catanzaro, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feralpisalo's recent record stands at 3W 5D 12L from 20 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Catanzaro, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 7L across 20 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Catanzaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Catanzaro by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Feralpisalo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Feralpisalo have managed 1W 3D 5L from 9 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Catanzaro's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Catanzaro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Catanzaro are on 1.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Catanzaro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Catanzaro in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 3W 5D 12L in their last 20 games (0.70 PPG), while Catanzaro have gone 10W 3D 7L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Catanzaro away?
Catanzaro's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.67 PPG; Catanzaro away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Feralpisalo or Catanzaro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Catanzaro in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
1
Catanzaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Catanzaro?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 1, Catanzaro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Catanzaro last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Feralpisalo 3-0 Catanzaro.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 44%, Catanzaro 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Feralpisalo) and 56% (Catanzaro).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 44% of games; Catanzaro in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Catanzaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Catanzaro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 56% of Catanzaro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 56% of Catanzaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Catanzaro tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Catanzaro in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feralpisalo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Catanzaro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo beat Catanzaro 3-0 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.08 xG and Catanzaro 1.23 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Feralpisalo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Catanzaro landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.83 / defence 1.29 against Catanzaro attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 31% | Catanzaro 38%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Feralpisalo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 55%, Catanzaro 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Catanzaro's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Feralpisalo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Catanzaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.