Feralpisalo 3-0 Catanzaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Catanzaro at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feralpisalo face Catanzaro.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Feralpisalo welcome Catanzaro to Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Feralpisalo have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feralpisalo at home: 1W 3D 5L from their last 9 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Catanzaro — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Catanzaro away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Feralpisalo) versus 1.20 (Catanzaro). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Feralpisalo have won 0, Catanzaro 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Feralpisalo 0–3 Catanzaro — a Catanzaro win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Feralpisalo trading profile (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Catanzaro trading profile (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 50% versus Catanzaro 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 55% | Catanzaro 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.08 xG and Catanzaro 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.827 / defence 1.286 | Catanzaro attack 0.804 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.188. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.286 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Catanzaro's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 20 games and Catanzaro's last 20.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 31% | Catanzaro 38%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.22 | Draw 3.26 | Catanzaro 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Catanzaro are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Catanzaro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 44% (last 9 home games) | Catanzaro 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro | Competition: Serie B, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 31% | Catanzaro 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Feralpisalo 1.08 / Catanzaro 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.827 / def 1.286 | Catanzaro attack 0.804 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Catanzaro (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Catanzaro xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Feralpisalo 3 - 0 Catanzaro.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro part of?
Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro is a Serie B fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 31% chance of winning, Catanzaro a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Catanzaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Feralpisalo and Catanzaro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Feralpisalo's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Catanzaro's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Catanzaro's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 20 games and Catanzaro's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Catanzaro Win
31%
3.22
31%
3.26
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.31
1.23
Catanzaro xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Catanzaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.23 for Catanzaro, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feralpisalo's recent record stands at 3W 5D 12L from 20 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Catanzaro, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 7L across 20 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Catanzaro by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Feralpisalo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Feralpisalo have managed 1W 3D 5L from their last 9 home games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Catanzaro's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across their last 9 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Catanzaro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Catanzaro are on 1.65 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Catanzaro
Blended
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Catanzaro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Blended
Catanzaro
Blended
❓ Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Catanzaro in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 3W 5D 12L in their last 20 games (0.70 PPG), while Catanzaro have gone 10W 3D 7L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Catanzaro away?
Catanzaro's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.67 PPG; Catanzaro away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Feralpisalo or Catanzaro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Catanzaro in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
1
Catanzaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Catanzaro?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 1, Catanzaro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Catanzaro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 January 2024: Feralpisalo 3-0 Catanzaro.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 44%, Catanzaro 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Feralpisalo) and 56% (Catanzaro).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 44% of games; Catanzaro in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Catanzaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Catanzaro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Catanzaro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 56% of Catanzaro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feralpisalo and Catanzaro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 56% of Catanzaro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Catanzaro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 100% of Catanzaro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feralpisalo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Catanzaro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo beat Catanzaro 3-0 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.08 xG and Catanzaro 1.23 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Feralpisalo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Catanzaro landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.83 / defence 1.29 against Catanzaro attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 31% | Catanzaro 38%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Feralpisalo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 55%, Catanzaro 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Catanzaro's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Feralpisalo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Catanzaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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