Cremonese 0-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cremonese at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Promotion Play-offs - Final sees Spezia travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Thursday 29 May 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spezia's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.60 PPG, Spezia 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Cremonese hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Spezia, with 2 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 3–2 with Cremonese winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cremonese and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Spezia in-play tendencies (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 56% versus Spezia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 56% | Spezia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.52 xG and Spezia 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.243 / defence 1.105 | Spezia attack 1.031 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.141. Data: 76 Cremonese games / 76 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 41% | Draw 28% | Spezia 31%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Spezia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 80% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Thursday 29 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 41% | Draw 28% | Spezia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Cremonese 1.52 / Spezia 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.243 / def 1.105 | Spezia attack 1.031 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Spezia xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Spezia kick off?
Cremonese vs Spezia kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 29 May 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Spezia?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Cremonese vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Spezia part of?
Cremonese vs Spezia is a Promotion Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 41% chance of winning, Spezia a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cremonese and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spezia?
Record (6 meetings): Cremonese 4W | Draws 2 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Spezia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Spezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 1.24x the league average against Spezia's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.61
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.82
1.30
Spezia xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
7%
14.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.30 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 78 games, going 36W 23D 19L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 1.49 PPG from 78 outings (28W 32D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.68 PPG, Spezia on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 18W 12D 8L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 1.21 points per game from 38 outings (9W 19D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.27 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 78 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Spezia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 36W 23D 19L in their last 78 games (1.68 PPG), while Spezia have gone 28W 32D 18L in their last 78 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Spezia away?
Cremonese's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.74 PPG; Spezia away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Spezia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2023, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Cremonese
3
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spezia?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 5, Spezia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Spezia 2-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Spezia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 58%, Spezia 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Cremonese) and 42% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Spezia in 37%; Spezia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cremonese's recent matches and 45% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Cremonese's recent games and 42% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Spezia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Spezia in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Promotion Play-offs - Final, as Cremonese and Spezia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.52 xG and Spezia 1.30 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Spezia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.24 / defence 1.10 against Spezia attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 76/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 41% | Draw 28% | Spezia 31%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 56%, Spezia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spezia's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.68 PPG, Spezia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.