Cremonese 0-2 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Reggiana meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Reggiana (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Cremonese's favour (1.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cremonese, 0 for Reggiana and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 51% versus Reggiana 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 55% | Reggiana 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.11 xG and Reggiana 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.944 / defence 1.022 | Reggiana attack 0.873 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.109. Data: 53 Cremonese games / 53 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 36% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Reggiana 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 50% | Reggiana 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 36% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Cremonese 1.11 / Reggiana 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.944 / def 1.022 | Reggiana attack 0.873 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Reggiana xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Reggiana kick off?
Cremonese vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Reggiana?
Cremonese 0 - 2 Reggiana.
Where is Cremonese vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Reggiana part of?
Cremonese vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 36% chance of winning, Reggiana a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Reggiana?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 2 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Reggiana in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Reggiana (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.87x) against Cremonese's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
36%
2.80
35%
2.87
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.10
0.99
Reggiana xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.99 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 26W 13D 14L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggiana's form line: 13W 23D 17L from 53 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reggiana.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (13W 6D 6L).
On the road, Reggiana have gone 8W 9D 8L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 0.98 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 26W 13D 14L in their last 53 games (1.72 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 13W 23D 17L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Reggiana away?
Cremonese's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.80 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Reggiana in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Reggiana have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Reggiana 1-2 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 48%, Reggiana 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 44% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Reggiana in 32%; Reggiana in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cremonese's recent matches and 44% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 44% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Reggiana tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Cremonese 0-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.11 xG and Reggiana 0.99 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Reggiana outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 36% | Draw 35% | Reggiana 29%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggiana's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Reggiana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.