Carrarese 2-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carrarese vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Sudtirol at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 3). Kick-off is Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Carrarese — last 2 games: 0W 0D 2L, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Across their last 10 games, Sudtirol have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sudtirol away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sudtirol — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.18 xG and Sudtirol 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.873 / defence 1.150 | Sudtirol attack 0.987 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.180. Data: built from Carrarese's last 2 games and Sudtirol's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Carrarese 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.04 | Draw 3.72 | Sudtirol 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Carrarese 2 games, Sudtirol 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 3 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Carrarese 1.18 / Sudtirol 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.873 / def 1.150 | Sudtirol attack 0.987 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sudtirol xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Carrarese vs Sudtirol kick off?
Carrarese vs Sudtirol kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Carrarese 2 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Carrarese vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Carrarese vs Sudtirol part of?
Carrarese vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 3) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 33% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Carrarese and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Carrarese vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Carrarese's last 2 games and Sudtirol's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.72
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.52
1.34
Sudtirol xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.34 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carrarese come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Carrarese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 2.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol in 100%.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
Carrarese (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carrarese
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Carrarese and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Carrarese's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
3
Draws
0
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Sudtirol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Carrarese have won 1, Sudtirol have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Carrarese 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Sudtirol?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carrarese vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carrarese and Sudtirol matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Carrarese's games and 100% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Carrarese and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Carrarese's matches and 100% of Sudtirol's.
Do Carrarese and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Carrarese's recent matches and 100% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Sudtirol 2-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.18 xG and Sudtirol 1.34 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Sudtirol attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 33% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 40%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 50%, Sudtirol 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Carrarese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Carrarese scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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