Cremonese 1-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Serie B matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cremonese register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Carrarese in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.77 xG and Carrarese 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.065 / defence 0.926 | Carrarese attack 0.823 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.240. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Cremonese games / 1 Carrarese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 56% | Draw 25% | Carrarese 19%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Carrarese 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Cremonese (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 56% | Draw 25% | Carrarese 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Cremonese 1.77 / Carrarese 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.065 / def 0.926 | Carrarese attack 0.823 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Carrarese xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Carrarese kick off?
Cremonese vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Cremonese 1 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Cremonese vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Carrarese part of?
Cremonese vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 56% chance of winning, Carrarese a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cremonese and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Carrarese in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Carrarese (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (1.06) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.97
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.71
0.94
Carrarese xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
3%
30.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.94 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Carrarese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.00 PPG, Carrarese on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Carrarese in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Carrarese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
1
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Carrarese 2-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Carrarese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Cremonese's recent matches and 100% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Cremonese's recent games and 100% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Carrarese tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Carrarese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Carrarese 1-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.77 xG and Carrarese 0.94 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Carrarese attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 56% | Draw 25% | Carrarese 19%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 0%, Carrarese 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 0.00 PPG, Carrarese 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.