Carrarese 2-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Carrarese welcome Cremonese to Stadio dei Marmi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio dei Marmi — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carrarese, 1 for Cremonese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Cremonese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Carrarese trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 41% versus Cremonese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 41% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.93 xG and Cremonese 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.947 / defence 1.159 | Cremonese attack 1.095 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.101. Data: 27 Carrarese games / 65 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 23% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 46%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 2.17. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 30% | Cremonese 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 23% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Carrarese 0.93 / Cremonese 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.947 / def 1.159 | Cremonese attack 1.095 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Cremonese xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Cremonese kick off?
Carrarese vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Cremonese?
Carrarese 2 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Carrarese vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Cremonese part of?
Carrarese vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 23% chance of winning, Cremonese a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Carrarese and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Cremonese in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carrarese's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
23%
4.37
31%
3.20
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.32
1.40
Cremonese xG
4.37
23%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
6%
17.70
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.40 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 8W 7D 12L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 11W 8D 8L from 27 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.15 PPG, Cremonese on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 6W 3D 4L from 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.44 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 11W 8D 8L in their last 27 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Cremonese away?
Carrarese's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.85 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cremonese in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carrarese
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 0, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Carrarese 2-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Carrarese 23% BTTS, Cremonese 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Carrarese) and 54% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Cremonese in 31%; Carrarese have failed to score in 31% of games; Cremonese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Carrarese's recent matches and 46% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Carrarese's recent games and 54% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Cremonese tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carrarese and Cremonese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 28, as Carrarese and Cremonese drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 0.93 xG and Cremonese 1.40 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Cremonese attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 23% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 46%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 41%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.15 PPG, Cremonese 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.