Carrarese 2-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cremonese at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carrarese vs Cremonese encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Carrarese welcome Cremonese to Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Carrarese have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Carrarese have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Cremonese — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Cremonese have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Carrarese's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Carrarese have won 0, Cremonese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Carrarese 0–1 Cremonese — a Cremonese win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Carrarese trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Cremonese trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 41% versus Cremonese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 41% | Cremonese 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Carrarese surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Cremonese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 0.93 xG and Cremonese 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.947 / defence 1.159 | Cremonese attack 1.095 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.101. Data: built from Carrarese's last 27 games and Cremonese's last 65.

Result probabilities: Carrarese 23% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 46%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 4.37 | Draw 3.20 | Cremonese 2.18. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carrarese 30% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 40% (last 10 away games).

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