Sassuolo 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Pisa travel to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to take on Sassuolo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 10W 0D 0L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Sassuolo are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sassuolo 2.20 PPG, Pisa 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sassuolo, 1 for Pisa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 58% and Pisa 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 55% | Pisa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.66 xG and Pisa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.559 / defence 0.969 | Pisa attack 1.011 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.096. Sassuolo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.559 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Sassuolo games / 65 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 49% | Draw 28% | Pisa 23%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Pisa 4.35. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 50% | Pisa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 49% | Draw 28% | Pisa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sassuolo 1.66 / Pisa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.559 / def 0.969 | Pisa attack 1.011 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Pisa xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Pisa kick off?
Sassuolo vs Pisa kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Sassuolo 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Sassuolo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Pisa part of?
Sassuolo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 49% chance of winning, Pisa a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sassuolo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Sassuolo and Pisa in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Pisa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (1.56) and Pisa's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.62
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.74
1.07
Pisa xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
4%
23.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.07 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo come into this having played 65 games, going 26W 14D 25L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.55 PPG from 65 outings (27W 20D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sassuolo on 1.42 PPG, Pisa on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sassuolo's home form reads 16W 6D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.31 points per game from 32 outings (11W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.45 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 65%.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 26W 14D 25L in their last 65 games (1.42 PPG), while Pisa have gone 27W 20D 18L in their last 65 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Pisa away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.69 PPG; Pisa away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and Pisa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sassuolo's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
1
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Pisa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Pisa 1-3 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Pisa?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 56%, Pisa 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sassuolo) and 44% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sassuolo's games and 59% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sassuolo's recent games and 44% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Pisa tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pisa in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Pisa 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.66 xG and Pisa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.56 / defence 0.97 against Pisa attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 49% | Draw 28% | Pisa 23%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 55%, Pisa 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.42 PPG, Pisa 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.