Bari 1-0 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 9 as Bari welcome Mantova to Stadio San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadio San Nicola this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Bari) versus 0.90 (Mantova). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bari register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Mantova in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bari, 0 for Mantova and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Bari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bari trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Mantova trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 59% versus Mantova 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 39% | Mantova 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.34 xG and Mantova 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.007 / defence 0.995 | Mantova attack 0.741 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.139. Data: 46 Bari games / 46 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 36% | Mantova 20%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.22 | Draw 2.78 | Mantova 5.00. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bari 80% | Mantova 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 45% | Draw 36% | Mantova 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Bari 1.34 / Mantova 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.007 / def 0.995 | Mantova attack 0.741 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Bari (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Mantova xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Mantova kick off?
Bari vs Mantova kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Mantova?
Bari 1 - 0 Mantova.
Where is Bari vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Mantova part of?
Bari vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 45% chance of winning, Mantova a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bari and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Mantova?
Record (2 meetings): Bari 2W | Draws 0 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Bari and Mantova in?
Bari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Mantova (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.01) and Mantova's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
45%
2.23
36%
2.81
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Bari xG
Total xG
2.19
0.84
Mantova xG
2.23
45%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bari and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Bari and 0.84 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bari's recent record stands at 11W 21D 14L from 46 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 19L across 46 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.17 PPG, Mantova on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bari have managed 8W 11D 3L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Bari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mantova's away record stands at 2W 7D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.15 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Mantova in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 11W 21D 14L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Mantova have gone 11W 16D 19L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Mantova away?
Bari's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.59 PPG; Mantova away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Mantova runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bari's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bari
0
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 3, Mantova have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Mantova 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Mantova?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bari at 68%, Mantova at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bari) and 54% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Mantova in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Bari's games and 64% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bari's recent games and 54% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Mantova tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mantova in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Mantova 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Mantova 1-0 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.34 xG and Mantova 0.84 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mantova landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Mantova attack 0.74 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 45% | Draw 36% | Mantova 20%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 39%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Mantova's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.17 PPG, Mantova 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.