Ascoli 0-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Ascoli take on Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ascoli and Cosenza meet at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Ascoli (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ascoli at home: 2W 7D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Cosenza's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Ascoli, 1 for Cosenza and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Ascoli 0–3 Cosenza — a Cosenza win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cosenza — key trading statistics (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Cosenza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 37% | Cosenza 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ascoli surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Cosenza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.89 xG and Cosenza 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.808 / defence 0.775 | Cosenza attack 1.031 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.180. Ascoli have a tight defence (rating 0.775), which is pulling Cosenza's projected output down. Data: built from Ascoli's last 73 games and Cosenza's last 73.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 30% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 32%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.38 | Draw 2.64 | Cosenza 3.08. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Ascoli's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ascoli 40% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 30% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Ascoli 0.89 / Cosenza 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.808 / def 0.775 | Cosenza attack 1.031 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cosenza xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ascoli vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Ascoli vs Cosenza kick off?
Ascoli vs Cosenza kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Ascoli 0 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Ascoli vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cosenza part of?
Ascoli vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 30% chance of winning, Cosenza a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ascoli and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Ascoli vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (1.03x) against Ascoli's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Ascoli's last 73 games and Cosenza's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.38
38%
2.64
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.83
0.94
Cosenza xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.1 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ascoli vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.94 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 20W 24D 29L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 18W 26D 29L from 73 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Ascoli against 1.10 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.22 PPG from their last 36 home games (10W 14D 12L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 6W 13D 17L from their last 36 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.99 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
Ascoli (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ascoli
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Ascoli vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Ascoli and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 20W 24D 29L in their last 73 games (1.15 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 18W 26D 29L in their last 73 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Cosenza away?
Ascoli's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.22 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cosenza in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Ascoli and Cosenza, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cosenza have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cosenza won Cosenza 3-0 Ascoli on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Ascoli vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cosenza?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ascoli have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 May 2024: Ascoli 0-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Cosenza?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 47%, Cosenza 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Ascoli and 31% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 39% of games; Cosenza in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ascoli vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ascoli and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ascoli's recent matches and 42% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ascoli and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ascoli's recent games and 31% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Ascoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Ascoli 0-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.89 xG and Cosenza 0.94 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.81 / defence 0.78 against Cosenza attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 30% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 37%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.15 PPG, Cosenza 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 36
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →