Ternana 0-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Ternana take on Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Ternana welcome Ascoli to Stadio Libero Liberati. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ascoli — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ascoli's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ternana) versus 1.20 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ternana register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ascoli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Ascoli have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Ternana.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Ascoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ascoli have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 54% versus Ascoli 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 51% | Ascoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.95 xG and Ascoli 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.787 / defence 0.853 | Ascoli attack 0.826 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.201. Ternana's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 72 Ternana games / 72 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 38% | Ascoli 28%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.94 | Draw 2.63 | Ascoli 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ternana 60% | Ascoli 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 38% | Ascoli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Ternana 0.95 / Ascoli 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.787 / def 0.853 | Ascoli attack 0.826 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ascoli xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Ascoli kick off?
Ternana vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Ascoli?
Ternana 0 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Ternana vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Ascoli part of?
Ternana vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 34% chance of winning, Ascoli a 28% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ternana and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Ascoli?
Record (5 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 4W.
What form are Ternana and Ascoli in?
Ternana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Ascoli (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.79) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
38%
2.62
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.80
0.85
Ascoli xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Ternana and 0.85 for Ascoli, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ternana's recent record stands at 20W 20D 32L from 72 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 19W 24D 29L across 72 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.11 PPG, Ascoli on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 12W 12D 12L from 36 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 9W 10D 17L across 36 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.01 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Ascoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 20W 20D 32L in their last 72 games (1.11 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 19W 24D 29L in their last 72 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Ascoli away?
Ternana's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.33 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ascoli have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Ascoli won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
5
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Ascoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Ascoli have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Ternana 0-1 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 47%, Ascoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Ternana) and 36% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ternana have failed to score in 31% of games; Ascoli in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ternana's recent games and 36% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Ascoli tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Ternana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Ternana 0-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.95 xG and Ascoli 0.85 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ternana fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against Ascoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 34% | Draw 38% | Ascoli 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 51%, Ascoli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ascoli's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.11 PPG, Ascoli 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.