Venezia 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Parma's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 1W 8D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Venezia, 0.80 for Parma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Venezia 1W, Parma 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 57% and Parma 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 65% | Parma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.39 xG and Parma 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.892 / defence 1.112 | Parma attack 0.876 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.308. Data: 11 Venezia games / 11 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 40% | Draw 26% | Parma 34%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 50% | Parma 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 40% | Draw 26% | Parma 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Venezia 1.39 / Parma 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.892 / def 1.112 | Parma attack 0.876 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Venezia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Parma xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Parma kick off?
Venezia vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Parma?
Venezia 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Venezia vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Parma part of?
Venezia vs Parma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 40% chance of winning, Parma a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Venezia and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 2W.
What form are Venezia and Parma in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Parma (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Venezia vs Parma?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.89x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.88x) against Venezia's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.85
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.27
Parma xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Venezia and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Venezia and 1.27 for Parma, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 24W 8D 17L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 22W 19D 8L from 49 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Venezia against 1.73 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Venezia have posted 2.17 PPG from 23 outings (16W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Parma have gone 9W 10D 4L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.63 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Parma in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 24W 8D 17L in their last 49 games (1.63 PPG), while Parma have gone 22W 19D 8L in their last 49 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Parma away?
Venezia's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.17 PPG; Parma away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Venezia or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Parma in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
3
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Parma have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Parma 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 65%, Parma 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Venezia and 56% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Parma in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Venezia's games and 61% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Venezia's matches and 56% of Parma's.
Do Venezia and Parma tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Parma in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Venezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Venezia 1-2 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.39 xG and Parma 1.27 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Parma attack 0.88 / defence 1.13, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 40% | Draw 26% | Parma 34%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 65%, Parma 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.63 PPG, Parma 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.