Venezia vs Cagliari – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cagliari at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Cagliari travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cagliari have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Cagliari's 1.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Venezia's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Venezia, 2 for Cagliari and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 0–3 with Cagliari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 50% versus Cagliari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 52% | Cagliari 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.12 xG and Cagliari 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.619 / defence 1.151 | Cagliari attack 0.826 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Venezia's attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Venezia games / 48 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 30% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 43%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Cagliari 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Venezia 30% | Cagliari 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 30% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Venezia 1.12 / Cagliari 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.619 / def 1.151 | Cagliari attack 0.826 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Cagliari xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Cagliari kick off?
Venezia vs Cagliari is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Where is Venezia vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Cagliari part of?
Venezia vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 30% chance of winning, Cagliari a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Venezia and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cagliari?
Record (7 meetings): Venezia 2W | Draws 3 | Cagliari 2W.
What form are Venezia and Cagliari in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.62) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
30%
3.30
27%
3.76
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.51
1.39
Cagliari xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Venezia and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Venezia and 1.39 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 25W 10D 13L from 48 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 22L across 48 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 18W 0D 6L from 24 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cagliari's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 games (1.77 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Cagliari away?
Venezia's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.25 PPG; Cagliari away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Venezia or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cagliari in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Cagliari runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Venezia
3
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cagliari?
From 7 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Cagliari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Cagliari 3-0 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 38%, Cagliari 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Venezia and 67% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cagliari in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Venezia's recent matches and 62% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Venezia's matches and 67% of Cagliari's.
Do Venezia and Cagliari tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.