Sassuolo 3-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Udinese at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Sassuolo versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 28 September 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sassuolo's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sassuolo are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.
Udinese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Udinese have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Sassuolo 0W, Udinese 2W, 4D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 55% versus Udinese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 50% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 0.79 xG and Udinese 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.768 / defence 1.053 | Udinese attack 1.016 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.138. Sassuolo's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Sassuolo games / 42 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 23% | Draw 32% | Udinese 45%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Udinese 2.22. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 20% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 23% | Draw 32% | Udinese 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Sassuolo 0.79 / Udinese 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.768 / def 1.053 | Udinese attack 1.016 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Udinese (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Udinese xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Udinese kick off?
Sassuolo vs Udinese kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Sassuolo 3 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Sassuolo vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Udinese part of?
Sassuolo vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 23% chance of winning, Udinese a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sassuolo and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Udinese?
Record (6 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 4 | Udinese 2W.
What form are Sassuolo and Udinese in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (0.77) and Udinese's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.02x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
23%
4.38
32%
3.11
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.01
1.22
Udinese xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 16.4 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.22 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 26W 7D 9L from 42 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 19L across 42 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sassuolo by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 15W 2D 4L from 21 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 7W 5D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.07 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Udinese in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 26W 7D 9L in their last 42 games (2.02 PPG), while Udinese have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Udinese away?
Sassuolo's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 2.24 PPG; Udinese away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sassuolo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
4
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Udinese have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Udinese 1-2 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 43%, Udinese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sassuolo) and 48% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 62% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sassuolo's recent games and 48% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Udinese tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Udinese in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Udinese 3-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 0.79 xG and Udinese 1.22 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Udinese attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 23% | Draw 32% | Udinese 45%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Sassuolo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 50%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.