Monza 1-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monza host Udinese at U-Power Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Monza at 0.70 PPG versus Udinese's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Monza register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Udinese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Monza, 1 for Udinese and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Monza in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Udinese in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 46% versus Udinese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 36% | Udinese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.12 xG and Udinese 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.735 / defence 1.007 | Udinese attack 0.943 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.286. Monza's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Monza games / 52 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 33% | Draw 28% | Udinese 38%. Fair-value odds: Monza 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Monza 60% | Udinese 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 33% | Draw 28% | Udinese 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Monza 1.12 / Udinese 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.735 / def 1.007 | Udinese attack 0.943 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Udinese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Udinese xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Udinese kick off?
Monza vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 9 December 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Udinese?
Monza 1 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Monza vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Udinese part of?
Monza vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 33% chance of winning, Udinese a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Monza and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Udinese?
Record (4 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 3 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Monza and Udinese in?
Monza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Udinese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
33%
3.00
28%
3.55
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Monza xG
Total xG
2.34
1.22
Udinese xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
10%
10.17
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Monza and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Monza and 1.22 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Monza come into this having played 52 games, going 12W 19D 21L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.04 PPG from 52 outings (11W 21D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monza on 1.06 PPG, Udinese on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Monza's home form reads 6W 9D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (6W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Udinese in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 12W 19D 21L in their last 52 games (1.06 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 21D 20L in their last 52 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.04 PPG; Udinese away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Monza's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Monza
3
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Udinese?
From 7 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Udinese have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Monza 2-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Udinese 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Monza) and 35% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Monza have failed to score in 27% of games; Udinese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Monza's recent matches and 54% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Monza's recent games and 35% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Udinese tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Udinese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Monza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Monza 1-2 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.12 xG and Udinese 1.22 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against Udinese attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 33% | Draw 28% | Udinese 38%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 36%, Udinese 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.06 PPG, Udinese 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.