Cagliari 0-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 19 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 4W 2D 4L at Unipol Domus — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Bologna have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Cagliari, 1.10 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Cagliari 2W, Bologna 4W, 0D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 50% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Bologna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.32 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.997 / defence 1.009 | Bologna attack 0.918 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.077. Data: 44 Cagliari games / 44 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 43% | Draw 30% | Bologna 27%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Bologna 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | Bologna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 43% | Draw 30% | Bologna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Cagliari 1.32 / Bologna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.997 / def 1.009 | Bologna attack 0.918 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Bologna xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Bologna kick off?
Cagliari vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Cagliari 0 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Cagliari vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Bologna part of?
Cagliari vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 43% chance of winning, Bologna a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cagliari and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bologna?
Record (6 meetings): Cagliari 2W | Draws 0 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Cagliari and Bologna in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Bologna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.92x) against Cagliari's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.34
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.32
1.00
Bologna xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.00 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 11D 22L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 19W 15D 10L from 44 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 6W 8D 8L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bologna's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.50 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Bologna in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Bologna have gone 19W 15D 10L in their last 44 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Bologna away?
Cagliari's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.18 PPG; Bologna away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Bologna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cagliari
1
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Bologna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Bologna 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 46%, Bologna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 54% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 36% of games; Bologna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cagliari's recent matches and 50% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 54% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Bologna tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bologna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Cagliari 0-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.32 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bologna outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Bologna attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 43% | Draw 30% | Bologna 27%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.