Bologna vs Monza – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Bologna welcome Monza to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna at this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Monza — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.10 (Monza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bologna, 1 for Monza and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 3–1 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Monza trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 47% versus Monza 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 44% | Monza 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.75 xG and Monza 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.855 / defence 1.155 | Monza attack 0.880 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bologna games / 6 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 49% | Draw 23% | Monza 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Monza 3.57. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Monza 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 49% | Draw 23% | Monza 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Bologna 1.75 / Monza 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.855 / def 1.155 | Monza attack 0.880 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Bologna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Monza xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Monza kick off?
Bologna vs Monza is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026.
What competition is Bologna vs Monza part of?
Bologna vs Monza is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 49% chance of winning, Monza a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bologna and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 2 | Monza 1W.
What form are Bologna and Monza in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.26
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Bologna xG
Total xG
3.01
1.26
Monza xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bologna and 1.26 for Monza, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 45 games, going 17W 10D 18L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.84 PPG from 45 outings (24W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 6W 6D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.48 points per game from 23 outings (9W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.62 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Monza in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Monza in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 17W 10D 18L in their last 45 games (1.36 PPG), while Monza have gone 24W 11D 10L in their last 45 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.04 PPG; Monza away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Bologna or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Monza in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bologna
2
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Monza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bologna 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Monza?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 39%, Monza 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bologna) and 52% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Monza in 35%; Bologna have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bologna's recent matches and 56% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bologna's recent games and 52% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Monza tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Monza in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.