Bologna vs Inter – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Inter at in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna at this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Inter — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bologna, 4 for Inter and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Inter in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 42% versus Inter 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 42% | Inter 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.88 xG and Inter 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.861 / defence 1.012 | Inter attack 1.170 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Bologna games / 40 Inter games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bologna 23% | Draw 27% | Inter 51%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Inter 1.96. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Inter 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 23% | Draw 27% | Inter 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Bologna 0.88 / Inter 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.861 / def 1.012 | Inter attack 1.170 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Inter (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Inter xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Inter kick off?
Bologna vs Inter is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026.
What competition is Bologna vs Inter part of?
Bologna vs Inter is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 23% chance of winning, Inter a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bologna and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
Record (10 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 3 | Inter 4W.
What form are Bologna and Inter in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Inter (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.86) and Inter's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
23%
4.39
27%
3.76
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.34
1.46
Inter xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
5%
18.91
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Bologna and 1.46 for Inter, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 16W 8D 16L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter's form line: 29W 6D 5L from 40 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, Inter have gone 14W 3D 3L from 20 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.35 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Inter in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Inter have gone 29W 6D 5L in their last 40 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.10 PPG; Inter away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Bologna or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Inter in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Inter have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bologna 30% BTTS, Inter 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bologna) and 45% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Inter in 55%; Bologna have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Bologna's recent matches and 40% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 45% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Inter tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Inter in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.