Bologna vs Como – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Bologna welcome Como to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bologna's home record at : 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Como — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Como haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Como have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 1.70 PPG versus Como's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bologna, 0 for Como and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Como trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 45% versus Como 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 45% | Como 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.99 xG and Como 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.921 / defence 1.057 | Como attack 1.154 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.179. Data: 38 Bologna games / 38 Como games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bologna 26% | Draw 27% | Como 47%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Como 2.13. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Como 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Como | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 26% | Draw 27% | Como 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Bologna 0.99 / Como 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.921 / def 1.057 | Como attack 1.154 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Como (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Como xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Como kick off?
Bologna vs Como is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 February 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Como part of?
Bologna vs Como is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 26% chance of winning, Como a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Como?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bologna and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Como?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 2 | Como 0W.
What form are Bologna and Como in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Bologna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.92x the league average against Como's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
26%
3.84
27%
3.76
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.43
1.44
Como xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
6%
16.18
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.7 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and Como expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Bologna and 1.44 for Como, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 16W 8D 14L from 38 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. Bologna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Como, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 7L across 38 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. Como haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Como by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 6W 4D 9L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Como's away record stands at 10W 5D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.71 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Como in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Pre-Season
Como
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Como in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Como have gone 20W 11D 7L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.16 PPG; Como away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Bologna or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Como in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Como specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bologna
2
Draws
0
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Como have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Como last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Como 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Como?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bologna 32% BTTS, Como 37%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bologna) and 47% (Como).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Como in 47%; Bologna have failed to score in 42% of games; Como in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Bologna's recent matches and 37% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bologna's recent games and 47% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Como tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Como in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.