AC Milan 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours AC Milan (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AC Milan face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to AC Milan versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 29 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Milan have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, AC Milan have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in AC Milan's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, AC Milan are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 3–1 with AC Milan winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AC Milan and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
AC Milan — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
AS Roma — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 56% versus AS Roma 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 65% | AS Roma 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.80 xG and AS Roma 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.062 / defence 0.639 | AS Roma attack 0.709 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.337. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing AC Milan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AC Milan's defence rating of 0.639 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 AC Milan games / 55 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Milan 66% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 12%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | AS Roma 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AC Milan (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: AC Milan 30% | AS Roma 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 66% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 38% | xG AC Milan 1.80 / AS Roma 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.062 / def 0.639 | AS Roma attack 0.709 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
0.61
AS Roma xG
38%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs AS Roma kick off?
AC Milan vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs AS Roma?
AC Milan 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is AC Milan vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs AS Roma part of?
AC Milan vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 66% chance of winning, AS Roma a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both AC Milan and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): AC Milan 4W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 0W.
What form are AC Milan and AS Roma in?
AC Milan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. AS Roma (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AC Milan's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.71x) against AC Milan's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.56
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.40
0.61
AS Roma xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
2%
50.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AC Milan and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.61 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AC Milan's recent record stands at 29W 14D 11L from 54 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 19L across 54 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for AC Milan against 1.50 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AC Milan have managed 16W 7D 4L from 27 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 6W 9D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Milan are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.59 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and AS Roma in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 29W 14D 11L in their last 54 games (1.87 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 23W 12D 19L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or AS Roma away?
AC Milan's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 2.04 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AC Milan or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, AS Roma in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Milan have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AC Milan
4
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 5, AS Roma have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and AS Roma?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 37%, AS Roma 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AC Milan) and 56% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; AS Roma in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AC Milan's recent matches and 63% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Milan vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AC Milan's recent games and 56% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and AS Roma tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Milan and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan and AS Roma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.80 xG and AS Roma 0.61 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.06 / defence 0.64 against AS Roma attack 0.71 / defence 1.26, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 66% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 12%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 65%, AS Roma 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.87 PPG, AS Roma 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.