St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St Patrick's Athl. face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Waterford have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Waterford's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Waterford's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, St Patrick's Athl. have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Waterford managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The historical record gives St Patrick's Athl. a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Waterford — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Waterford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.71 xG and Waterford 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.324 / defence 0.757 | Waterford attack 0.822 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.208. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 St Patrick's Athl. games / 50 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 78% | Draw 16% | Waterford 7%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 | Draw 6.25 | Waterford 14.29. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (78%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 67% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Waterford 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 78% | Draw 16% | Waterford 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 50% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 2.71 / Waterford 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.324 / def 0.757 | Waterford attack 0.822 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Waterford xG
50%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 May 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. 4 - 1 Waterford.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 78% chance of winning, Waterford a 7% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
Record (7 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 4W | Draws 2 | Waterford 1W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.32) and Waterford's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.82x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
78%
1.29
16%
6.42
7%
14.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
3.46
0.75
Waterford xG
1.29
78%
Home win
6.42
16%
Draw
14.51
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
7%
14.98
Win to Nil
37%
2.74
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.75 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 30W 21D 21L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 25W 11D 36L from 72 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for St Patrick's Athl. against 1.19 for Waterford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.86 PPG from 36 outings (19W 10D 7L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 11W 5D 20L from 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.18 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Waterford away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.86 PPG; Waterford away: 1.06 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Waterford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Waterford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Waterford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Waterford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 47% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Waterford in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Waterford 4-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.71 xG and Waterford 0.75 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.32 / defence 0.76 against Waterford attack 0.82 / defence 1.38, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 78% | Draw 16% | Waterford 7%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG, Waterford 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Waterford (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.