St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 July 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.40 (Dundalk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of St Patrick's Athl.: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Dundalk, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Dundalk winning.
The historical record gives St Patrick's Athl. a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dundalk trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 38% versus Dundalk 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Dundalk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.05 xG and Dundalk 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.234 / defence 0.619 | Dundalk attack 0.940 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.306. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.619 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 24 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 66% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 12%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Dundalk 8.33. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Dundalk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jul 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 66% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 2.05 / Dundalk 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.234 / def 0.619 | Dundalk attack 0.940 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Dundalk xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 July 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 66% chance of winning, Dundalk a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
Record (9 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 5W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 2W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.23x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.56
12%
8.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.81
0.76
Dundalk xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
8.50
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
13%
7.76
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
2%
65.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.76 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 12W 6D 6L from 24 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 7L across 24 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.75 PPG, Dundalk on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 9W 1D 2L from 12 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — St Patrick's Athl. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dundalk's away record stands at 3W 6D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.58 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 71%.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 12W 6D 6L in their last 24 games (1.75 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 9W 8D 7L in their last 24 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Dundalk away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.33 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.25 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dundalk in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 33%, Dundalk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 58% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 75% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 58% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 25, as St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.05 xG and Dundalk 0.76 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.23 / defence 0.62 against Dundalk attack 0.94 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 66% | Draw 22% | Dundalk 12%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 38%, Dundalk 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.75 PPG, Dundalk 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.