Sligo Rovers 2-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sligo Rovers at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sligo Rovers vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sligo Rovers welcome Waterford to The Showgrounds in Premier Division (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 31 August 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sligo Rovers have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Sligo Rovers have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Waterford — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Waterford have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sligo Rovers carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Sligo Rovers have won 0, Waterford 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Jun 2024, ended Sligo Rovers 1–4 Waterford — a Waterford win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Waterford in-play tendencies (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 41% versus Waterford 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 55% | Waterford 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.47 xG and Waterford 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.058 / defence 0.888 | Waterford attack 0.999 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 0.971. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 64 games and Waterford's last 28.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 50% | Draw 29% | Waterford 21%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 1.99 | Draw 3.45 | Waterford 4.81. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and Waterford's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 40% (last 10 home games) | Waterford 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 29 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 50% | Draw 29% | Waterford 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Sligo Rovers 1.47 / Waterford 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.058 / def 0.888 | Waterford attack 0.999 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.315 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Waterford xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Waterford FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Waterford kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Waterford kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Sligo Rovers 2 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Waterford part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Waterford is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 29) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 50% chance of winning, Waterford a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Waterford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sligo Rovers's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 64 games and Waterford's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.45
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.33
0.86
Waterford xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
5%
20.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Waterford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.86 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 29 games, going 11W 7D 11L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Waterford sit at 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (13W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sligo Rovers on 1.38 PPG, Waterford on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across their last 14 home games, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Sligo Rovers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Waterford have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 14 away games (6W 2D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.34 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs Waterford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Waterford Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and Waterford in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 11W 7D 11L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while Waterford have gone 13W 4D 12L in their last 29 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Waterford away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.79 PPG; Waterford away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Waterford in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Apr 2025, when Sligo Rovers won Waterford 0-4 Sligo Rovers.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Waterford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Waterford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 5, Waterford have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Waterford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Sligo Rovers 0-0 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Waterford?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 36%, Waterford 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sligo Rovers) and 43% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 43% of games; Waterford in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs Waterford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and Waterford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 36% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sligo Rovers and Waterford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 43% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Waterford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 79% of Waterford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Waterford 2-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.47 xG and Waterford 0.86 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waterford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Waterford attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 50% | Draw 29% | Waterford 21%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 55%, Waterford 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Waterford's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.38 PPG, Waterford 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.