St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Drogheda United at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 5W 2D 3L at Richmond Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Drogheda United's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 PPG, Drogheda United 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St Patrick's Athl. register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Drogheda United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 1, Drogheda United 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Jun 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Drogheda United trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 48% versus Drogheda United 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 51% | Drogheda United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.09 xG and Drogheda United 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.029 / defence 1.113 | Drogheda United attack 0.952 / defence 1.516. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 0.951. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.516 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 St Patrick's Athl. games / 64 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 61% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 16%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Drogheda United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Drogheda United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 61% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 2.09 / Drogheda United 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.029 / def 1.113 | Drogheda United attack 0.952 / def 1.516 | league avg home 1.338 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Drogheda United xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. 4 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 61% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
Record (2 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 1W | Draws 1 | Drogheda United 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.03) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.49
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
3.09
1.01
Drogheda United xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
12%
8.07
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
49.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.01 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 63 games, going 27W 13D 23L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Drogheda United sit at 1.03 PPG from 63 outings (15W 20D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 17W 4D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Drogheda United have taken 0.74 points per game from 31 outings (5W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.21 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 27W 13D 23L in their last 63 games (1.49 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 15W 20D 28L in their last 63 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Drogheda United away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.77 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.74 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
0
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Drogheda United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 42%, Drogheda United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 61% (Drogheda United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. have failed to score in 26% of games; Drogheda United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 61% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 61% of Drogheda United's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 4-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.09 xG and Drogheda United 1.01 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against Drogheda United attack 0.95 / defence 1.52, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 61% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 16%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 51%, Drogheda United 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Drogheda United's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.