Bohemians 2-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Dalymount Park this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bohemians register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bohemians have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 0–3 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.92 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.934 / defence 0.943 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.941 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.216. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Bohemians games / 47 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 80% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Bohemians 0.92 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.934 / def 0.943 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.941 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Bohemians 2 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 30% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 0W | Draws 2 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
30%
3.35
32%
3.11
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.00
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.6 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.08 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 22D 24L from 72 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 36W 13D 23L across 72 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.39 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 14W 10D 12L from 36 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 15W 8D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.53 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 22D 24L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.44 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Bohemians or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
5
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians) and 56% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bohemians's games and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians's recent games and 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 0.92 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.94 / defence 0.76, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 30% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.39 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.