PAOK 4-1 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Apollon Smirnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 4W 1D 2L across 7 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.86 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 1.29 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Super League 1 appearances (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 1.86 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Toumbas this season.
Apollon Smirnis have collected 0.71 PPG across 7 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Apollon Smirnis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Apollon Smirnis have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.15 in PAOK's favour (1.86 vs 0.71) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Apollon Smirnis half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 57% versus Apollon Smirnis 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 57% | Apollon Smirnis 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.78 xG and Apollon Smirnis 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.176 / defence 1.276 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.682 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.153. Apollon Smirnis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing PAOK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 PAOK games / 7 Apollon Smirnis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 54% | Draw 26% | Apollon Smirnis 20%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Apollon Smirnis 5.00. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 33% | Apollon Smirnis 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 54% | Draw 26% | Apollon Smirnis 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG PAOK 1.78 / Apollon Smirnis 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.176 / def 1.276 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.682 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: PAOK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Apollon Smirnis xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis?
PAOK 4 - 1 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 54% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PAOK and Apollon Smirnis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Apollon Smirnis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Apollon Smirnis in?
PAOK (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.18x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Apollon Smirnis's attack (0.68x) against PAOK's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.83
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.78
1.00
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
3%
29.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for PAOK and 1.00 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Apollon Smirnis sit at 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Apollon Smirnis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PAOK's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Apollon Smirnis have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.43 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis in 29%.
Defensively: Apollon Smirnis in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
PAOK's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 1.33 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.33 PPG.
Have PAOK or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
PAOK
0
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Apollon Smirnis?
From 2 meetings on record, PAOK have won 2, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 0-2 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Apollon Smirnis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (PAOK) and 33% (Apollon Smirnis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (PAOK) and 67% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Apollon Smirnis in 33%; PAOK have failed to score in 33% of games; Apollon Smirnis in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Apollon Smirnis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PAOK's recent matches and 33% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Apollon Smirnis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of PAOK's recent games and 67% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Apollon Smirnis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Apollon Smirnis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Apollon Smirnis 4-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.78 xG and Apollon Smirnis 1.00 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.18 / defence 1.28 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.68 / defence 1.41, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 54% | Draw 26% | Apollon Smirnis 20%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 57%, Apollon Smirnis 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.