Apollon Smirnis 2-2 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Georgios Kamaras to face Apollon Smirnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Apollon Smirnis have collected 0.62 PPG across 8 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 5L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Apollon Smirnis have posted 1W 1D 2L at Stadio Georgios Kamaras — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Kamaras. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AEK Athens FC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 1L from 8 games (2.38 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.75 is notably below their overall 2.38 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AEK Athens FC are the stronger side — 1.76 PPG clear of the hosts (2.38 vs 0.62). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Apollon Smirnis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Apollon Smirnis 38% versus AEK Athens FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Apollon Smirnis 50% | AEK Athens FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 0.94 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.681 / defence 1.097 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.197 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.109. Apollon Smirnis's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AEK Athens FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Apollon Smirnis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Apollon Smirnis games / 8 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 21% | Draw 34% | AEK Athens FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 4.76 | Draw 2.94 | AEK Athens FC 2.17. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Apollon Smirnis 25% | AEK Athens FC 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 21% | Draw 34% | AEK Athens FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Apollon Smirnis 0.94 / AEK Athens FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.681 / def 1.097 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.197 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
1.46
AEK Athens FC xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC?
Apollon Smirnis 2 - 2 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 21% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 46% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC in?
Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-1D-1L in 8 | 2.38 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Apollon Smirnis's attack at 0.68x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.20x) against Apollon Smirnis's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
21%
4.80
34%
2.97
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
2.40
1.46
AEK Athens FC xG
4.80
21%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
5%
20.60
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.2 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 1.46 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Apollon Smirnis have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 1W 2D 5L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 6W 1D 1L from 8 games, 2.38 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 1.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Apollon Smirnis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Apollon Smirnis have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, AEK Athens FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AEK Athens FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Apollon Smirnis at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Apollon Smirnis at home: 1.00 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Apollon Smirnis or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
1
Draws
1
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when AEK Athens FC 3-0 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Apollon Smirnis tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Apollon Smirnis 25%, AEK Athens FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Apollon Smirnis) and 75% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Apollon Smirnis play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 75% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Apollon Smirnis vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Apollon Smirnis's recent games and 75% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Apollon Smirnis have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Apollon Smirnis and AEK Athens FC finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 0.94 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Apollon Smirnis beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.68 / defence 1.10 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.25, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 21% | Draw 34% | AEK Athens FC 46%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 50%, AEK Athens FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.