PAOK vs AEK Athens FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 3W 7D 0L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 0.90 PPG clear of PAOK in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 4W to 2W over the last 10 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 46% versus AEK Athens FC 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 60% | AEK Athens FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.80 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.296 / defence 0.809 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.091 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 0.959. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 28 PAOK games / 29 AEK Athens FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAOK 58% | Draw 28% | AEK Athens FC 15%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.72 | Draw 3.57 | AEK Athens FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
PAOK dominate the H2H record, yet AEK Athens FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AEK Athens FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PAOK 30% | AEK Athens FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 58% | Draw 28% | AEK Athens FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG PAOK 1.80 / AEK Athens FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.296 / def 0.809 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.091 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.555 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: PAOK (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.85
AEK Athens FC xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 58% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both PAOK and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
Record (10 meetings): PAOK 4W | Draws 4 | AEK Athens FC 2W.
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in?
PAOK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.30x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.09x) against PAOK's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
The sample (28/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
58%
1.74
28%
3.60
15%
6.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.65
0.85
AEK Athens FC xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
6.81
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
2%
41.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are PAOK and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for PAOK and 0.85 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 20W 10D 5L from 35 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 2L across 35 games — 2.26 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for PAOK against 2.26 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 13W 4D 0L from 17 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 8W 8D 1L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.91 scored and 0.60 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 20W 10D 5L in their last 35 games (2.00 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 23W 10D 2L in their last 35 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or AEK Athens FC away?
PAOK's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.53 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.88 PPG.
Have PAOK or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
4
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
AEK Athens FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 29%, AEK Athens FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (PAOK) and 35% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of PAOK's recent matches and 47% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of PAOK's recent games and 35% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.