Panetolikos 1-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Volos NFC travel to Panetolikos Stadium to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panetolikos's home record at Panetolikos Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Panetolikos Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Panetolikos) versus 1.50 (Volos NFC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Panetolikos, 3 for Volos NFC and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 0–3 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Panetolikos 29% | Volos NFC 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 24% | Volos NFC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.16 xG and Volos NFC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.843 / defence 1.107 | Volos NFC attack 0.862 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 0.945. Data: 28 Panetolikos games / 28 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 42% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 28%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Volos NFC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 10% | Volos NFC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 42% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Panetolikos 1.16 / Volos NFC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.843 / def 1.107 | Volos NFC attack 0.862 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.220 / away 0.945 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Volos NFC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Panetolikos 1 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 42% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Panetolikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Record (8 meetings): Panetolikos 3W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 3W.
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.34
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.06
0.90
Volos NFC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.90 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 9D 15L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 1.03 PPG from 38 outings (11W 6D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.34 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panetolikos's home form reads 7W 2D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (7W 2D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.95 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 11W 6D 21L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.21 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panetolikos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
2
Draws
5
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Panetolikos 21% BTTS, Volos NFC 42%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Panetolikos) and 53% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 47% of games; Volos NFC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 42% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Panetolikos's recent games and 53% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panetolikos 1-2 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.16 xG and Volos NFC 0.90 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Volos NFC attack 0.86 / defence 1.13, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 42% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 28%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 24%, Volos NFC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.34 PPG, Volos NFC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.