Panetolikos 0-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Stadio Panetolikou to face Panetolikos in Super League 1 (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Panetolikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.70 for PAOK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to PAOK, who have 6 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Panetolikos 0–2 PAOK — a PAOK win.
PAOK have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 47% versus PAOK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 47% | PAOK 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Panetolikos surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while PAOK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.03 xG and PAOK 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.968 / defence 0.966 | PAOK attack 1.522 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.250. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.522, which lifts their away xG to 1.84. Data: built from Panetolikos's last 40 games and PAOK's last 40.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | PAOK 56%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 4.81 | Draw 4.33 | PAOK 1.78. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (PAOK 6 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panetolikos 30% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 15 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | PAOK 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Panetolikos 1.03 / PAOK 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.968 / def 0.966 | PAOK attack 1.522 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: PAOK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.84
PAOK xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Panetolikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panetolikos vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Panetolikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs PAOK part of?
Panetolikos vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 15) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 21% chance of winning, PAOK a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Panetolikos and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panetolikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.97) and PAOK's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.52x) against Panetolikos's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from Panetolikos's last 40 games and PAOK's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
21%
4.81
23%
4.33
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.87
1.84
PAOK xG
4.81
21%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
3%
30.20
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.84 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Panetolikos have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 15W 13D 19L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 31W 8D 8L from 47 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panetolikos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panetolikos have posted 1.35 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 4D 10L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 16W 4D 3L from their last 23 away games — 2.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.32 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAOK in 62%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Panetolikos (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panetolikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Panetolikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while PAOK have gone 31W 8D 8L in their last 47 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.35 PPG; PAOK away: 2.26 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, PAOK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Panetolikos and PAOK, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: PAOK have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won Panetolikos 0-3 PAOK on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Panetolikos
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panetolikos have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Panetolikos 1-3 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 39%, PAOK 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Panetolikos and 70% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panetolikos vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panetolikos and PAOK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Panetolikos's games and 74% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Panetolikos and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Panetolikos's matches and 70% of PAOK's.
Do Panetolikos and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 78% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.03 xG and PAOK 1.84 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against PAOK attack 1.52 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 21% | Draw 23% | PAOK 56%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 47%, PAOK 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.