Lamia 0-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Lamia welcome Panetolikos to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panetolikos stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Panetolikos — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Lamia hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 1 for Panetolikos, with 1 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Lamia winning.
The historical record gives Lamia a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 61% versus Panetolikos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 63% | Panetolikos 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.81 xG and Panetolikos 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.745 / defence 0.975 | Panetolikos attack 0.865 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.255. Lamia's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Lamia games / 39 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 26% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 40%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Panetolikos 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Lamia dominate the H2H record, yet Panetolikos are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 60% | Panetolikos 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 26% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Lamia 0.81 / Panetolikos 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.745 / def 0.975 | Panetolikos attack 0.865 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Panetolikos xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panetolikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panetolikos kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Lamia 0 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panetolikos part of?
Lamia vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 26% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Lamia and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panetolikos?
Record (7 meetings): Lamia 5W | Draws 1 | Panetolikos 1W.
What form are Lamia and Panetolikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamia's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
26%
3.79
34%
2.97
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Lamia xG
Total xG
1.86
1.06
Panetolikos xG
3.79
26%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Lamia and 1.06 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 9W 13D 24L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panetolikos's form line: 14W 13D 19L from 46 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.87 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.91 PPG from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 5W 9D 9L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.09 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Panetolikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 13D 24L in their last 46 games (0.87 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.91 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Panetolikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Panetolikos have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lamia's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lamia
1
Draws
4
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 5, Panetolikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panetolikos?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 61%, Panetolikos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Lamia) and 44% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 30% of games; Panetolikos in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lamia's games and 56% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Lamia's recent games and 44% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Lamia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Lamia 0-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.81 xG and Panetolikos 1.06 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.74 / defence 0.97 against Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 0.85, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 26% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 40%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 63%, Panetolikos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panetolikos's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.87 PPG, Panetolikos 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.