Panathinaikos 2-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panathinaikos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Panathinaikos have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Panathinaikos's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) — Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 38% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 44% | Olympiakos Piraeus 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.52 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.157 / defence 0.755 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.121 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. Panathinaikos have a tight defence (rating 0.755), which is pulling Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output down. Data: built from Panathinaikos's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 43% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 27%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.30 | Draw 3.34 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though recent form (Panathinaikos's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panathinaikos 60% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 43% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Panathinaikos 1.52 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.157 / def 0.755 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.121 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panathinaikos 2 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 10) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 43% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.16) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.12x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Panathinaikos's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.34
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.67
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.15 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 44W 15D 12L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 44W 15D 12L from 71 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.07 PPG for Panathinaikos against 2.07 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.14 PPG from their last 35 home games (22W 9D 4L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 18W 10D 7L from their last 35 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.07 scored and 0.79 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into Panathinaikos's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
Panathinaikos (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 44W 15D 12L in their last 71 games (2.07 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 44W 15D 12L in their last 71 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.14 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Panathinaikos
4
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panathinaikos have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 37%, Olympiakos Piraeus 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Panathinaikos) and 43% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 43%; Olympiakos Piraeus in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 66% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Championship Round - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.52 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.16 / defence 0.76 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.12 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 43% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 27%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 44%, Olympiakos Piraeus 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 2.07 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.