AEK Athens FC 3-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AEK Athens FC face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
AEK Athens FC welcome Lamia to OPAP Arena in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 10). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AEK Athens FC — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, AEK Athens FC have gone 8W 2D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Lamia have recorded 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 3.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lamia away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of AEK Athens FC: 7 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Lamia, with 0 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2024, ended AEK Athens FC 4–0 Lamia — a AEK Athens FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both AEK Athens FC and goals — 7 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 43% versus Lamia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 60% | Lamia 56%). Note also that Lamia surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while AEK Athens FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.31 xG and Lamia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.316 / defence 0.850 | Lamia attack 1.058 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.316 — their 2.31 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from AEK Athens FC's last 52 games and Lamia's last 52.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 18%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.66 | Draw 4.50 | Lamia 5.69. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.31 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AEK Athens FC's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AEK Athens FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 100% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG AEK Athens FC 2.31 / Lamia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.316 / def 0.850 | Lamia attack 1.058 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Lamia xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Lamia FAQs
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 Lamia.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Lamia part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 10) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 60% chance of winning, Lamia a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AEK Athens FC vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AEK Athens FC's attack rating (1.32) and Lamia's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AEK Athens FC's last 52 games and Lamia's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.50
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
3.54
1.23
Lamia xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
10%
10.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
2%
57.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.23 for Lamia, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 46W 14D 8L from 68 games, a 2.24 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Lamia, meanwhile, have gone 14W 22D 32L across 68 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 26W 6D 1L from their last 33 home games — 2.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamia's away record stands at 4W 13D 16L across their last 33 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.97 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
AEK Athens FC (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are AEK Athens FC and Lamia in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 46W 14D 8L in their last 68 games (2.24 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 22D 32L in their last 68 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Lamia away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.55 PPG; Lamia away: 0.76 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Lamia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 14 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won Lamia 0-4 AEK Athens FC.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AEK Athens FC have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 December 2024: Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Lamia?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 33%, Lamia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for AEK Athens FC and 58% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Lamia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AEK Athens FC and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 54% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AEK Athens FC and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 58% of Lamia's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 61% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 3-0 at OPAP Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.31 xG and Lamia 1.23 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lamia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.32 / defence 0.85 against Lamia attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 60% | Draw 22% | Lamia 18%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 60%, Lamia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.