Olympiakos Piraeus 4-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PAOK have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Olympiakos Piraeus's favour (2.50 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAOK in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 3W, PAOK 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus PAOK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 56% | PAOK 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.32 xG and PAOK 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.130 / defence 0.834 | PAOK attack 1.295 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Draw 27% | PAOK 33%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | PAOK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Draw 27% | PAOK 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.32 / PAOK 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.130 / def 0.834 | PAOK attack 1.295 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.18
PAOK xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 4 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 40% chance of winning, PAOK a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
Record (5 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 0 | PAOK 2W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.13) and PAOK's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.29x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.72
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.50
1.18
PAOK xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.18 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 44W 12D 10L from 66 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 42W 9D 15L across 66 games — 2.05 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.18 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.05 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 25W 5D 3L from 33 games — 2.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 20W 5D 8L across 33 trips, a 1.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.21 scored and 1.02 conceded. PAOK's attacking output running into Olympiakos Piraeus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 44W 12D 10L in their last 66 games (2.18 PPG), while PAOK have gone 42W 9D 15L in their last 66 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.42 PPG; PAOK away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, PAOK in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, PAOK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, PAOK 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 70% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 70% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 70% of PAOK's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, PAOK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over PAOK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 4-2 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.32 xG and PAOK 1.18 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAOK outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against PAOK attack 1.29 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Draw 27% | PAOK 33%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 56%, PAOK 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.18 PPG, PAOK 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.