Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Olympiakos Piraeus face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 6). Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's record over their last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PAOK have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PAOK have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 2.00 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, PAOK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 46% versus PAOK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 58% | PAOK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.51 xG and PAOK 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.312 / defence 0.832 | PAOK attack 1.478 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.312 — their 1.51 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK bring a tight defence (rating 0.705, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output down. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.478, which lifts their away xG to 1.67. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 games and PAOK's last 52.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 33% | Draw 27% | PAOK 40%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 3.04 | Draw 3.65 | PAOK 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 33% | Draw 27% | PAOK 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.51 / PAOK 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.312 / def 0.832 | PAOK attack 1.478 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: PAOK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.67
PAOK xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 6) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 33% chance of winning, PAOK a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.31) and PAOK's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.48x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 games and PAOK's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.65
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.18
1.67
PAOK xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.67 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 41W 14D 11L from 66 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 40W 14D 12L across 66 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.08 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.03 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 23W 5D 5L from their last 33 home games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 18W 9D 6L across their last 33 away games, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.98 scored and 0.89 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; PAOK in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 41W 14D 11L in their last 66 games (2.08 PPG), while PAOK have gone 40W 14D 12L in their last 66 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.24 PPG; PAOK away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, PAOK in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, PAOK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, PAOK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 54% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; PAOK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 52% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 54% of PAOK's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 79% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat PAOK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.51 xG and PAOK 1.67 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.31 / defence 0.83 against PAOK attack 1.48 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 33% | Draw 27% | PAOK 40%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, PAOK 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.08 PPG, PAOK 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.