Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.

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Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 7). The match kicks off on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Aris Thessalonikis's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Olympiakos Piraeus's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 3 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2024, ended Aris Thessalonikis 0–3 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 45% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.39 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.090 / defence 0.936 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.138 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.779, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Aris Thessalonikis's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 34% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.96 | Draw 3.38 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 60% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% (last 10 away games).

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