OFI 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — OFI are significantly better at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Aris Thessalonikis's 2.10 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of OFI's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. OFI register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for OFI, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 53% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 58% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.01 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.916 / defence 1.271 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.030 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.175. Data: 30 OFI games / 31 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 24% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 49%. Fair-value odds: OFI 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.04. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 24% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG OFI 1.01 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.916 / def 1.271 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.030 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Aris Thessalonikis xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI 3 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 24% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (5 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.92) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
24%
4.17
28%
3.63
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
OFI xG
Total xG
2.55
1.54
Aris Thessalonikis xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
5%
19.43
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for OFI and 1.54 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, OFI have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 11W 8D 17L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 19W 8D 9L from 36 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (5W 3D 9L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 4D 6L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.31 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.06 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.47 PPG.
Have OFI or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 59%, Aris Thessalonikis 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (OFI) and 41% (Aris Thessalonikis). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 35%; OFI have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Aris Thessalonikis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of OFI's games and 59% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of OFI's matches and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.01 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.54 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.92 / defence 1.27 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 24% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 49%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a OFI win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 58%, Aris Thessalonikis 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.