OFI vs AEK Athens FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OFI at 37%, yet in-form AEK Athens FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees AEK Athens FC travel to Pankritio Stadium to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Pankritio Stadium, OFI have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AEK Athens FC stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AEK Athens FC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 4W 6D 0L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AEK Athens FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour AEK Athens FC, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for OFI.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AEK Athens FC have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 47% versus AEK Athens FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 69% | AEK Athens FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.32 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.032 / defence 1.034 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.123 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 OFI games / 26 AEK Athens FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OFI 37% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 33%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | AEK Athens FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AEK Athens FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: OFI 20% | AEK Athens FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 37% | Draw 30% | AEK Athens FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG OFI 1.32 / AEK Athens FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.032 / def 1.034 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.123 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: OFI (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.25
AEK Athens FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
OFI vs AEK Athens FC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs AEK Athens FC part of?
OFI vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 37% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both OFI and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and AEK Athens FC?
Record (10 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 1 | AEK Athens FC 7W.
What form are OFI and AEK Athens FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. OFI (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OFI's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against AEK Athens FC's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.28
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
OFI xG
Total xG
2.57
1.25
AEK Athens FC xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are OFI and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for OFI and 1.25 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI's recent record stands at 12W 3D 17L from 32 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. OFI haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 2L across 32 games — 2.25 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. AEK Athens FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, OFI have managed 8W 0D 8L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 8W 7D 1L across 16 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.78 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Pre-Season
AEK Athens FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 12W 3D 17L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 21W 9D 2L in their last 32 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.50 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.94 PPG.
Have OFI or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AEK Athens FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
1
Draws
7
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, AEK Athens FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when AEK Athens FC 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AEK Athens FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 31%, AEK Athens FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (OFI) and 38% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 50%; OFI have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of OFI's recent matches and 44% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of OFI's recent games and 38% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.