Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Levadiakos at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 6 sees Levadiakos travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 2W 1D 7L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levadiakos are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamia, 1 for Levadiakos and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lamia in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 32% versus Levadiakos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 36% | Levadiakos 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.97 xG and Levadiakos 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.801 / defence 1.102 | Levadiakos attack 0.929 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 52 Lamia games / 26 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 31% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 39%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 30% | Levadiakos 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 31% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Lamia 0.97 / Levadiakos 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.801 / def 1.102 | Levadiakos attack 0.929 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Levadiakos xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Levadiakos kick off?
Lamia vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Lamia 2 - 3 Levadiakos.
Where is Lamia vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Levadiakos part of?
Lamia vs Levadiakos is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 31% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lamia and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Levadiakos?
Record (6 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 4 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Lamia and Levadiakos in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.80x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
31%
3.20
30%
3.34
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.09
1.12
Levadiakos xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.8 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Lamia and 1.12 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia's recent record stands at 3W 8D 20L from 31 games, a 0.55 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 11L across 31 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 2W 3D 10L from 15 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 6D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.52 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.23 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Levadiakos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 3W 8D 20L in their last 31 games (0.55 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 9W 11D 11L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.60 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Levadiakos runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lamia's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Lamia
4
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Levadiakos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2025, when Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 33%, Levadiakos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lamia) and 53% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 60% of games; Levadiakos in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lamia's recent matches and 60% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lamia's recent games and 53% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Lamia 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Lamia 2-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.97 xG and Levadiakos 1.12 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Levadiakos attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 31% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 39%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 36%, Levadiakos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.55. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.