Lamia 0-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Levadiakos travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 0W 3D 7L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levadiakos are 0.70 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamia, 0 for Levadiakos and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lamia in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 33% versus Levadiakos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 33% | Levadiakos 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.76 xG and Levadiakos 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.606 / defence 1.209 | Levadiakos attack 0.897 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.115. Lamia's attack strength of 0.606 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Lamia games / 21 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 23% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 47%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 2.13. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 30% | Levadiakos 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 23% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Lamia 0.76 / Levadiakos 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.606 / def 1.209 | Levadiakos attack 0.897 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Levadiakos xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Levadiakos kick off?
Lamia vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 10 February 2025 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Lamia 0 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Lamia vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Levadiakos part of?
Lamia vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 23% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Lamia and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Levadiakos?
Record (4 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 3 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Lamia and Levadiakos in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.61x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
23%
4.28
30%
3.33
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Lamia xG
Total xG
1.97
1.21
Levadiakos xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 16.8 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Lamia and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Lamia and 1.21 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia's recent record stands at 1W 6D 14L from 21 games, a 0.43 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 3W 9D 9L across 21 games — 0.86 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 0W 3D 7L from 10 games — 0.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 1W 5D 4L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.48 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 1W 6D 14L in their last 21 games (0.43 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 3W 9D 9L in their last 21 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.30 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Levadiakos runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lamia's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Lamia
4
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Levadiakos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2025, when Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 30%, Levadiakos 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lamia) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 70% of games; Levadiakos in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Lamia's recent matches and 70% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lamia's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.76 xG and Levadiakos 1.21 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.61 / defence 1.21 against Levadiakos attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 23% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 47%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 33%, Levadiakos 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 0.86 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.