Lamia 0-2 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Lamia take on Ionikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lamia welcome Ionikos to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Monday 30 January 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lamia — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lamia's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Ionikos have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Ionikos have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.40 PPG (Lamia) versus 0.50 (Ionikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lamia, 1 for Ionikos and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2022, ended Lamia 1–1 Ionikos — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 38% versus Ionikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 40% | Ionikos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.14 xG and Ionikos 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.797 / defence 1.289 | Ionikos attack 0.792 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.043. Lamia's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Ionikos's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Lamia's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ionikos's projected output up. Data: built from Lamia's last 45 games and Ionikos's last 45.
Result probabilities: Lamia 33% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 30%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.00 | Draw 2.69 | Ionikos 3.38. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 50% (last 10 home games) | Ionikos 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Monday 30 January 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 33% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lamia 1.14 / Ionikos 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.797 / def 1.289 | Ionikos attack 0.792 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ionikos xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs Ionikos FAQs
What time does Lamia vs Ionikos kick off?
Lamia vs Ionikos kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 30 January 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Ionikos?
Lamia 0 - 2 Ionikos.
Where is Lamia vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Ionikos part of?
Lamia vs Ionikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 33% chance of winning, Ionikos a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lamia and Ionikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lamia vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.80x the league average against Ionikos's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 45 games and Ionikos's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
37%
2.69
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.20
1.06
Ionikos xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs Ionikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lamia and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Lamia and 1.06 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia come into this having played 52 games, going 8W 18D 26L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Ionikos sit at 1.02 PPG from 52 outings (13W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.81 PPG, Ionikos on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lamia's home form reads 3W 9D 13L across their last 25 home games, a 0.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Ionikos have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 4D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.08 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
Lamia (Home) vs Ionikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Lamia vs Ionikos Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 8W 18D 26L in their last 52 games (0.81 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 13W 14D 25L in their last 52 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Ionikos away?
Ionikos's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.72 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 13 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lamia's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lamia
2
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs Ionikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Ionikos?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Ionikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2023: Ionikos 2-2 Lamia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Ionikos 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lamia) and 40% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 44% of games; Ionikos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs Ionikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and Ionikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 48% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamia and Ionikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lamia's recent games and 40% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Ionikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Lamia's recent matches and 80% of Ionikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.14 xG and Ionikos 1.06 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ionikos outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.80 / defence 1.29 against Ionikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 33% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ionikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 40%, Ionikos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ionikos's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.81 PPG, Ionikos 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ionikos win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.