PAOK 3-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Monday 30 January 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 0W 3D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 1.30 PPG lead over Levadiakos (2.30 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: PAOK 0W, Levadiakos 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 37% versus Levadiakos 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAOK 42% | Levadiakos 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.29 xG and Levadiakos 0.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.023 / defence 0.755 | Levadiakos attack 0.620 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.019. PAOK's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 PAOK games / 19 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 54% | Draw 36% | Levadiakos 11%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.85 | Draw 2.78 | Levadiakos 9.09. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Levadiakos's lower xG of 0.48 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Levadiakos 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 54% | Draw 36% | Levadiakos 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 31% | xG PAOK 1.29 / Levadiakos 0.48 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.023 / def 0.755 | Levadiakos attack 0.620 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: PAOK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.48
Levadiakos xG
31%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Levadiakos kick off?
PAOK vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 30 January 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Levadiakos?
PAOK 3 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is PAOK vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Levadiakos part of?
PAOK vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 54% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 11% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both PAOK and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Levadiakos?
Record (1 meetings): PAOK 0W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are PAOK and Levadiakos in?
PAOK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.02x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.62x) against PAOK's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.48.
These ratings are built from 45/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (18.4%), 2-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
54%
1.86
36%
2.81
11%
9.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
PAOK xG
Total xG
1.77
0.48
Levadiakos xG
1.86
54%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
9.51
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.26
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
62%
1.61
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
3%
34.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 8.1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.0 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are PAOK and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for PAOK and 0.48 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAOK come into this having played 19 games, going 11W 6D 2L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 0.68 PPG from 19 outings (2W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
PAOK's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 0.33 points per game from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.53 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 11W 6D 2L in their last 19 games (2.05 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 2W 7D 10L in their last 19 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Levadiakos away?
PAOK's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.22 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.33 PPG.
Have PAOK or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
PAOK go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, PAOK have won 5, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when PAOK 3-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Levadiakos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (PAOK) and 33% (Levadiakos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAOK) and 44% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Levadiakos in 33%; Levadiakos in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PAOK's recent matches and 33% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAOK's recent games and 44% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Levadiakos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Levadiakos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Levadiakos 3-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.29 xG and Levadiakos 0.48 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos outscored their 0.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.02 / defence 0.76 against Levadiakos attack 0.62 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 54% | Draw 36% | Levadiakos 11%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 42%, Levadiakos 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.68. Form held, and they took the win. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.