Iraklis 1908 vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Iraklis 1908 at 40%, yet in-form OFI provide a compelling counter-argument — this Iraklis 1908 vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees OFI travel to Kaftanzoglio Stadium to take on Iraklis 1908. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, OFI have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. OFI are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.41 xG and OFI 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | OFI attack 1.029 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Data: 2 Iraklis 1908 games / 28 OFI games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 40% | Draw 30% | OFI 29%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | OFI 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Iraklis 1908 at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Iraklis 1908 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 40% | Draw 30% | OFI 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Iraklis 1908 1.41 / OFI 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | OFI attack 1.029 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Iraklis 1908 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.18
OFI xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs OFI kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs OFI is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 40% chance of winning, OFI a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Iraklis 1908 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and OFI in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D. OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Iraklis 1908's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Iraklis 1908's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Iraklis 1908 Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.31
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
2.59
1.18
OFI xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.18 for OFI, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Iraklis 1908's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours OFI by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Iraklis 1908 heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: OFI in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and OFI in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while OFI have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Iraklis 1908 or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Iraklis 1908 have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, OFI in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Iraklis 1908's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Iraklis 1908's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Iraklis 1908 and OFI tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, OFI in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.